Today, ACER releases its report on the key developments in the gas wholesale markets.

The report looks back at Europe’s gas markets in 2023, shows the trends so far in 2024 and identifies upcoming challenges.

Along with ACER’s report on key developments in the electricity wholesale markets, today marks the beginning of ACER’s 2024 Market Monitoring Report (MMR) series.

What gas market trends did ACER monitoring find?

• In 2023, gas supply to Europe remained below the range that was the norm pre-Ukraine invasion. Yet with consumption also substantially lower, storage levels stayed at historic highs, leading to wholesale prices decreasing.
• Gas hub price convergence improved but did not reach pre-energy crisis levels. New Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) import terminals and additional gas transportation capacity eased the network congestion that drove price differences to record highs in 2022. On the back of the same drivers, spot LNG and European wholesale prices also aligned in 2023.
• Growth in renewables reduced the need for thermal power, easing gas market tightness and driving the EU’s shift towards clean energy and away from fossil fuels.
• The likely end of the Ukraine gas transit agreement – coming in winter 2024/2025 – coupled with potentially increasing costs of cross-border trade could disrupt regional gas balances, calling for Member State preparedness and European solutions.
• Looking further ahead, uncertainties in future gas consumption, lack of available alternatives to gas storage for seasonal flexibility, and persistent global gas price differentials call for the attention of policy makers and energy regulators. Europe can address these energy challenges by leveraging its strengths, such as enhanced market integration enabling energy to move freely across borders.

Access the report.

Today, ACER and the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) publish the second part of a two-fold consultancy study on the impact of the EU and national gas storage regulations.

What is the role of gas storage?

Gas storage is vital for supplying 25-30% of the EU’s winter gas demand and plays a key role in the security of gas supply. The increasing importance of well-filled gas storage facilities was highlighted by the recent energy crisis, helping to mitigate potential gas supply disruptions and strengthen Europe’s resilience.

The EU gas storage Regulation (2022) introduces storage filling targets and burden sharing mechanisms. From 2023, it requires underground storage facilities to be filled to 90% before starting the winter period.

What is the study about?

The aim of the study was to analyse the measures adopted by Member States to strengthen the use of underground storage facilities in the EU and their contribution to the objectives of the EU gas storage regulation.

ACER and CEER commissioned VIS Economic & Energy Consultants to conduct a two-part study on this topic. The first part (published in October 2023) focused on collecting and assessing storage measures recently applied by EU Member States. This second part assesses storage arrangements in Member States without gas storage facilities, identifies lessons learnt and makes recommendations for better use and implementation of storage measures

• Support schemes for storage: They have motivated market participants to use storage, especially when contracting capacity is linked with filling targets. Support mechanisms should complement storage users’ obligations.
• Storage filling of last resort: The efficiency of this measure could be enhanced by facilitating access to futures markets for price hedging and with implementing a strategy for releasing gas stocks back to market.
• Cross-border impacts and cost recovery:  The release of gas stocks should not oblige entities to reserve excess capacity at cross-border interconnection points (IPs). Cost recovery mechanisms should not include charges and levies imposed at IPs.
• Use-it-or-lose-it mechanism of storage capacity: A congestion management mechanism including a streamlined process for capacity release at specific milestones is useful for efficient use of storage capacity.
• Contracts for differences (CfDs): They should be defined and offered well in advance of the injection period. Direct subsidies should be provided as a last resort only if the interest in CfDs is limited.

Want to know more?

On 12 March 2024, ACER and CEER are hosting a webinar to:

• present the consultancy study’s finding on the impact of the EU and national gas storage regulations;
• offer insights into the ongoing implementation of the EU gas storage regulation;
• discuss the important role of storage with stakeholders through polls & Q&A session.

Register to the ACER-CEER webinar (12 March).

The EU energy ministers agreed to extend the gas market correction mechanism (MCM) for a period of one year, until 31 January 2025.

Ministers at the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy (TTE) Council meeting (19 December 2023) reached a political agreement to extend the period of application of three Council regulations (adopted in December 2022) designed for emergency situations, including the gas MCM (see the Council's press release).

Next, the Council will aim to formally adopt the regulations by written procedure.

What is the gas market correction mechanism?

The MCM Regulation (December 2022) established a gas MCM to protect EU citizens and the economy against excessively high energy prices. It entered into force on 1 February 2023, initially for a period of one year, and tasked ACER with the calculation and publication of the MCM reference price.

Learn more about the MCM.

ACER publishes today its report on Poland’s proposed gas transmission tariffs for the Transit Gas Pipeline System (TGPS). In its report, ACER provides recommendations to the Polish national regulatory authority, URE, in relation to the tariff methodology applicable for this transmission network.

The TGPS is the Polish section of the Yamal-Western Europe gas pipeline, which runs from Poland’s border with Belarus to its border with Germany. This pipeline served to transport gas from Belarus to Germany with some flows exiting to Poland. However, the pipeline is now used for transporting gas from Germany to the Polish national transmission system.

Why the need for a report?

Gaz-System, the Polish transmission system operator, carried out a consultation regarding the tariff structure for the TGPS. According to the Network Code on Harmonised Transmission Tariff structures, ACER should provide a compliance analysis of the proposed reference price methodology before URE can adopt a motivated decision.

What does ACER recommend?

ACER assessed the proposed methodology to calculate the gas tariffs for the TGPS and provided the following recommendations:

• Publish the input parameters used to calculate the tariffs for 2026. This information will help network users estimate the indicative tariffs for the year 2026.

• Price the capacity offered at the exit interconnection point to Germany as an interruptible product (i.e. the service can be interrupted under certain conditions).

• Assess the costs and benefits of a possible merger of the TGPS with the Polish national transmission network. The merger could allow all import routes to Poland to compete on the basis of a single access tariff to the network. In addition, it could potentially increase the level of capacity bookings, making the system more efficient and affordable. At the same time, this could result in significant costs for Polish consumers which the NRA should assess.  

What are the next steps?

Following the end of the final consultation (15 November 2023), URE has five months to take and publish a motivated decision on the tariff methodology applied to TGPS, taking into consideration ACER’s recommendations.

Access the report.

Access all ACER reports on national tariff consultation documents.

ACER publishes today its Opinion on the Winter Supply Outlook for 2023-2024 of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

ENTSOG's Outlook evaluates the European gas network's readiness to meet supply and demand requirements for the upcoming winter. It also provides an overview of summer 2024.

ENTSOG’s key findings

• Cooperation is key: the EU gas infrastructures is adequate to meet winter gas demand and the storage filling targets, if Member States cooperate and sufficient gas supply is ensured.

• Storage fillings levels: storage filling levels already reached the 90% target in August 2023, showing that the measures implemented in the Members States were effective.

• If specific circumstances of high demand materialise, Europe would still risk to face demand curtailment and low level of gas in stock at the end of the winter.

• A minimum of 46% of working gas volume should be retained at the end of winter, to meet the summer demand and achieve the 90% targets by 1 November 2024.

• Early and significant withdrawal of gas from storages will negatively affect the flexibility of the gas system and the security of supply for winter 2024–25.

• The prolonged unavailability of the Balticconector (connecting the Estonian and Finnish gas grids) does not pose a significant risk to the security of gas supply in the region.

What are ACER’s conclusions?

• Timely publication: ACER welcomes the timely publication of the Winter Supply Outlook 2023–24.

• Scope of the analysis: ACER appreciates that the analysis carried out by ENTSOG includes different scenarios, including a full disruption of Russian gas supply and different availabilities of LNG imports and storage filling levels. It also welcomes that the Outlook extends its analysis by also assessing the level of preparedness for winter 2024-25.

• Risks and supply disruptions: as the risk for a potential full disruption of the Russian gas supplies persists, an effective monitoring of European gas supplies and storage filling trajectories is key.

• Maximisation of cross-border and import capacities: recently commissioned infrastructure has added significant cross-border and import capacities. ACER invites the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) involved to coordinate, maximise their capacities and jointly manage contractual and physical congestions.

• ENTSOG’s Outlook methodology:  ACER finds that improvements are needed:

  • In the definition of demand and supply projections. 

  • To improve transparency by publishing the assumptions underlying the different demand and supply scenarios.

  • To engage with stakeholders before drafting the Outlooks and to consult on the methodology proposed.

• Cooperation between ENTSOG and ENTSO-E: ACER invites the ENTSOs to cooperate in ensuring consistent assumptions in their seasonal outlooks and to align the timing of their publication.

Read ACER’s Opinion and access ACER's other ENTSOG Outlook Opinions.

Today, ACER publishes its report on the French national regulatory authority’s (CRE’s) proposed gas transmission tariffs. In its report, ACER assesses the methodology proposed for calculating the tariffs applicable to the transmission networks and provides several recommendations to further justify the methodology.

What are ACER’s recommendations?

• Improve the justification provided for the proposed flow scenarios, in particular:
  • Support the proposed distance cost driver calculation with evidence. In the proposed methodology, this is based on the ‘shortest distance between entry and exit points’, instead of using the average distance between network points, which is the standard approach in the capacity weighted distance methodology.
  • Demonstrate that the application of non-economic combination of points is consistent with the possibility of sourcing gas to neighbouring markets from the French hub. The methodology proposes that certain combinations of network points cannot be considered in the calculation of the distance cost driver, as they are not competitive with alternative EU routes.
  • Provide a clearer explanation on the calculation steps and the outcome of the optimisation algorithm.

This recommendation aims at ensuring that CRE provides an appropriate justification for the assumptions and calculations proposed in the methodology.

• Increase transparency: ACER recommends that CRE assesses the impact of the proposed flow scenarios and unit cost equalisation on the distance cost driver and on tariffs respectively. CRE proposes that tariffs for the intra-system and cross-system use of the network have the same unit costs, but does not explain the degree to which tariffs are modified to achieve this objective.

• Yearly assessment on contracted capacity: ACER proposes a yearly assessment of the difference between the forecasted contracted capacity and the actual contracted capacity at the beginning of each tariff period. This is particularly relevant as the forecast is completed for a four-year period, instead of the more standard yearly period. The publication should inform stakeholders about the accuracy of the contracted capacity forecast.

Access all ACER reports on national tariff consultation documents.

Today the annual report monitoring the internal gas market in 2022 and 2023 is published.

This ACER-CEER report provides an overview of the latest developments in European gas markets and examines the drivers of the gas price spikes in summer 2022. The report draws lessons from the crisis and identifies forward-looking implications to offer strategic perspective for policy makers to make the market more resilient. 

What are the key findings and lessons?

• The EU's integrated gas system showed a certain resilience against the energy crisis. Yet, the severe supply shock led to highly congested access to LNG terminals and pipelines, causing price surges, hub price disparities and trading disruptions.
• After the 2022 shock, the European gas market supply and demand balance improved thanks to consistent imports of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and a significant decreased gas demand. This resulted in gas prices to trend closer to pre-crisis levels.
• Global gas supply overall is still tight, exposing prices to unexpected developments. China’s LNG demand recovery remains an important influencing factor on EU gas prices going forward.
• The report highlights the lasting impact of the Russian supply shock on the EU energy market and the steps done to overcome the supply dependence. It draws some lessons for the future around the EU gas markets’ future resilience factors: increased EU reliance on LNG; reducing gas demand; revenue redistribution; and the enhanced security of supply role of underground storages.
  • European gas prices will be more exposed to global competition and hence will be more volatile.
  • The reduction in conventional gas demand shall assist the EU’s decarbonisation goals. Yet, it needs to be done smoothly in order to preserve the economic activity and the security of supply that gas offers to the EU’s energy system.

Also today, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) publishes its report examining the development of gas trading activity in summer 2022. ESMA analyses reveal a well-maintained trading activity despite a more challenging trading environment.

What’s next?

• Save the date: on 16 November 2023, ACER and CEER are organising a webinar on evolving trends in the European gas market. Register here.
• Early 2024: Analysis of LNG market developments.

Access the ACER-CEER European gas market trends and price drivers report.

Dive into ACER’s interactive dashboard and explore the evolution of price and demand supply metrics for the period 2015 to 2023.

ACER publishes today a consultancy study on the impact of EU and national gas storage regulations.

The study was commissioned to VIS Economic & Energy Consultants with the aim of:

• collecting and analysing national measures recently applied by EU Member States (with and without storage facilities) within the framework of the European Gas Storage Regulation;

• assessing how these measures contribute to achieving the storage filling targets, and, where possible, estimating the associated costs; and

• identifying possible difficulties when implementing the measures.

What is the role of gas storage and why is it important?

Gas storages play an important role in the European gas system as they supply up to 25-30% of the total gas consumed in the EU during winter. Storing gas physically in the EU helps mitigating the impact of a potential gas disruption. This is key in a context where the EU’s internal gas production declines, while Europe aims to phase out its remaining dependency on Russian gas supply.

The energy crisis which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 underscored the importance of having gas storages adequately filled in across Europe, in case of potential gas supply disruptions.

When gas prices are similar during winter and summer, or even more expensive during summer (as it happened during 2022), market participants are discouraged from injecting gas into storages during the summer, as they would do it at a loss. As a consequence, winter storages levels may be lower and less gas can be withdrawn in case of need. This may pose a risk to the security of gas supply as storage levels at the start of the winter may not be sufficient to address supply-demand imbalances. In such cases, administrative measures may be required to ensure that gas storages are filled in, regardless of unfavourable market signals.

What are the main findings of this report?

The analysis concluded the following measures recently helped meeting the storage filling targets, despite the discouraging market signals:

• Financial incentives for storage users: offering financial incentives for storage users facilitated the utilisation of storage capacity. Incentives such as tariff discounts and direct subsidies have proved to be effective. On the other hand, the interest of market participants in taking part in more elaborate incentive schemes, such as signing contracts for differences, was limited.

• Stockholding obligations: imposing stockholding obligations help guaranteeing that storing filling targets can be achieved. However, when positive market price signals incentivise market participants to store gas, there is the risk they can reduce the overall flexibility of the gas system (if stockholding obligations account for the largest part of the storage capacity).

• Last resort storage entities: appointing an entity to provide storage filling of last resort contributes to safeguard security of supply, in case the market would not act, but it comes at a cost. The mechanism should be made more efficient by planning when the entity should act, volume requirements, and introducing risk reduction mechanisms (e.g. price hedging by the designated entity).

• Use-it-or-lose-it mechanisms: implementing these mechanisms enabled the swift release of booked but unused capacity and contributed considerably to storage filling.

The report further concluded that some measures are in need of greater transparency and verifiability.

The report also found that:

• Member States without underground storage facilities made efforts to store gas in neighbouring countries but the remaining technical and commercial constraints should be addressed, by strengthening coordination between Member States with and without storage and finding ways to enhance regional solidarity.

• All Member States with underground gas storage facilities met the filling target obligations. Measures implemented by Member States helped overcome negative market signals during the 2022 injection period and contributed to achieve adequate levels of stored gas.

• In 2022, the Member States’ underground facilities collectively stored over 630 TWh of gas as result of the measures. This amount represents approximately 53% of the European Union’s total aggregated storage capacity.

What are the next steps?

As a next step, the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) will undertake another study on storage burden-sharing mechanisms and identification of best practices and recommendations to enhance the efficiency of storage filling obligations.

Access the report and the slides  summarising the most important findings.

8 March 2024 update: Access the second part of the study. 

With gas markets being impacted by a global pandemic (2020) and a European energy crisis (2022), the resilience of the current market rules (also known as “network codes”) has been tested. Although they have mostly ensured a proper market functioning (see ACER’s Market Monitoring Reports and congestion reports), lessons have yet to be learned to further enhance market resilience.

The European gas market must also ensure its readiness to align with the latest policy and technological developments, guaranteeing that the decarbonisation targets set by the Green Deal can be met.

Against this background, the latest European Gas Regulatory Forum (also known as “Madrid Forum”) has recently emphasised the importance of having gas market rules which can adequately reflect this evolution, and therefore prompted for the revision of the Capacity Allocation Mechanisms Network Code (“CAM NC”).

What is the Capacity Allocation Mechanisms Network Code?

The rules for allocating gas transmission capacity have been in place since 2017, when the current version of the Network Code on Capacity Allocation Mechanisms was adopted.

These market rules harmonise how network users can utilise the gas transmission network to enter or exit a market, and how these capacity rights can be obtained.

What is the role of ACER?

As a first step, ACER is planning a public consultation (opening on Tuesday 14 November 2023) and workshop (on Tuesday 12 December 2023) to take stock of what works under the current market rules and collect views from stakeholders on the way forward.

ACER will benefit from this information when it may recommend amendments to the CAM NC in the course of 2024.

What are the next steps? Save the dates!

ACER is launching a public consultation on the “Capacity Allocation Mechanisms Network Code: achievements and the way forward”, which will run from Tuesday 14 November 2023 until Friday 5 January 2024.

On Tuesday 12 December 2023, ACER will also organise an online workshop on the same topic. Registrations will open on Tuesday 14 November 2023.

The event aims to:

• debate the achievements and possible areas of improvement of the CAM NC; and

• provide stakeholders with the opportunity to present their views.

ACER also intends to publish a policy paper, tentatively in the first quarter of 2024, to follow up on any identified areas of improvement. This policy paper will be a first input when the formal review of the CAM NC may be launched in the course of 2024.

The European gas system was gas primarily designed for transportation of Russian supplies from east to west. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and increased pipeline supplies began to enter Europe from the west, which caused bottlenecks in North-West Europe (NWE).

Addressing congestion in North-West Europe

In addition to its annual monitoring of congestion, ACER publishes today its Special Report on addressing congestion in North-West European gas markets. The report examines:

• How acute bottlenecks emerged in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands; 
• How the respective Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs) addressed the bottlenecks; and
• The lessons learnt.

What did ACER find?

• Congestion on the gas network in NWE drove hub spreads high.
• TSOs benefitted from significantly higher congestion revenues in 2022 (compared to 2021). EU TSOs recorded €3.4 billion in gas congestion revenues in 2022 (of which €2.98 billion or nearly 90% was earned by NWE TSOs); for comparison, EU’s total gas congestion revenues in 2021 were €55 million.
• The EU’s integrated gas market proved to be resilient to the crisis, facilitating the reconfiguration of supply and demand, and ensuring gas would flow to where it was most needed;
• TSOs made commendable efforts to address the acute physical bottlenecks from Belgium to the Netherlands, from Belgium to Germany and from France to Germany by increasing the gas capacity (kWh/h) available;
• But, while there was coordination among neighbouring TSOs, such coordination and information availability weakened while striving to maximise the availability of firm and interruptible capacities on both sides of the borders under difficult circumstances. This resulted in mismatched transmission capacities. In addition, the availability of information on the optimised network could be improved. Hence, a key learning is the need for continuous coordination and information sharing.

During an energy crisis, short-term mitigating actions are important:

• Europe’s voluntary gas-demand reduction target has been extended until 31 March 2024;
• The storage-filling targets agreed in 2023 were updated for 2023.

No-regret measures include:

• Addressing the most acute gas bottlenecks (in this instance, NWE) to improve market efficiency in the short term;
• Optimising existing infrastructure to accommodate new gas supply routes.

ACER recommends:

• Joint optimisation by network operators of gas capacity;
• Better information on gas network use;
• Careful assessment of investment needs to avoid stranded assets;
• Fine-tune the rules on gas transmission capacity.

Access the ACER Special Report on addressing congestion in North-West European gas markets.

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