Scenarios
A vision for the future
Network development scenarios represent visions of the future, according to which the assessment of projects’ benefits is made using the CBA. The TEN-E Regulation defines which variables should comprise scenarios for electricity and gas. The European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSOs) are responsible for developing common network development scenarios for gas and electricity.
Scenarios
What's the role of ACER?
Under the TEN-E Regulation, ACER is responsible for creating Framework Guidelines for Scenario Development, while ENTSOG and ENTSO-E (the ‘ENTSOs’) are tasked with developing network scenarios based on these guidelines. In January 2023, ACER published its Framework Guidelines, aiming to establish a transparent, inclusive, and robust process.
Scenarios
What does ACER say?
In its latest Opinion (October 2024), ACER welcomed some improvements in the scenarios’ development process, ACER’s assessment identifies several areas of non-compliance with its Framework Guidelines:
- Diverging scenarios: rather than developing different scenario variants based on economic factors, the ENTSOs created diverging scenarios, leading to less reliable results.
- Delayed process: scenarios’ development was delayed, negatively impacting other processes.
- Slower stakeholder group formation: the process of establishing the Stakeholder Reference Group took longer than expected, which impacted the stakeholder engagement’s overall effectiveness.
- Transparency: despite enhanced transparency and stakeholder consultations, the draft 2024 Scenarios Report still did not fully meet the transparency standards set by the Framework Guidelines.
ACER expects some of these issues to be addressed in the final 2024 Scenarios Report for the TYNDP and anticipates that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will further tackle the remaining shortcomings in the 2026 scenarios.