Key developments in European gas markets – Q3 2024

  • Gas
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Gas market key developments

2024 Market Monitoring Report

What gas market trends did ACER monitoring find?

The third quarterly review of key developments in gas wholesale markets in 2024 finds that despite supply uncertainty re-emerging, Europe avoided severe gas price volatility. This edition of key developments also focuses on the evolution of gas transmission tariffs and their effects on wholesale prices.

  • Gas prices: In Q3 2024, European gas wholesale prices rose but remained slightly lower and considerably less volatile than in the same period last year. Increased Norwegian supply, healthy storage levels, and low demand helped moderate price pressures stemming from a tighter global Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) market, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty around remaining Russian gas transits via Ukraine.
  • Price integration: Prices were uniform across most EU gas hubs, though not all. Those markets where gas transported through Germany plays an important supply role experienced divergence as the German storage levy increased.
  • Pipeline and LNG supply: EU gas imports decreased year-on-year in Q3, continuing a trend seen throughout 2024. While pipeline supply from Norway increased, this was offset by lower LNG imports, as EU buyers avoided competing for higher priced spot cargoes in an otherwise balanced European gas market.
  • Gas demand: Stagnant household demand and a modest increase in industrial demand were outweighed by a reduced call on gas-fired electricity generation, leaving overall EU gas demand slightly lower than in 2023 and well below pre-crisis levels.
  • Renewables continue to displace gas generation: Increased renewables’ output limited the opportunities for conventional power plants (gas and coal) to run profitably. This lowered carbon emissions, loosened the EU gas demand-supply balance and reduced instances of gas setting marginal prices in electricity markets.
  • Gas storage: The EU-mandated 90% gas storage level was reached several weeks ahead of the 1 November deadline, despite lower year-on-year injections throughout the quarter. The market signal to store gas (i.e., the summer-winter spread) remained positive and consistent but was notably weaker, on average, compared to the previous two filling seasons (i.e., summer of 2023 and 2022).
  • Gas transmission tariffs: There have been significant increases in transmission tariffs in recent years in some EU Member States but limited evidence that these increases have led to reduced gas price convergence so far. More tariff increases are expected in the near-term, warranting monitoring of the effects of tariff changes on cross-border trade and market integration. Future tariff levels will depend on demand trends, asset depreciation, and decarbonisation efforts.

What challenges lie ahead?

  • The agreement for transportation of Russian gas through Ukraine expires at the end of 2024, and its renewal is unlikely. Landlocked Central European countries will need alternative supply routes, making cross-border trade essential for maintaining affordable gas prices.
  • If gas withdrawals this winter significantly exceed those of the past two, EU buyers may need to increase their competitiveness in LNG markets to replenish stocks in 2025, potentially driving up wholesale gas prices. Weather conditions will play a key role in either exposing or mitigating these risks.
  • Several LNG production projects are currently under construction, but relief for a tight global LNG market may not be imminent. Facilities expected to deliver the first cargos to the global market in 2025 face uncertainty in commissioning and production ramp-up. Significant additional LNG volumes are anticipated from 2026 onwards, as several large projects are scheduled to come online.

ACER will continue to closely monitor trends in the European gas markets that could lead to short-term volatility for European energy markets. The next update on the European gas wholesale markets will be published early in 2025.

Check out our other 2024 MMR publications.

Highlights

  • 23% drop in LNG imports (EU's largest source of gas supply) compared to Q3 2023.

  • 25 TWh of gas saved due to more renewables compared to Q3 2023.

  • 40% estimated rise in EU average gas cross-border tariffs since 2021.

Report

The report finds that despite supply uncertainty re-emerging, Europe avoided severe gas price volatility in Q3 2024.

What’s novel in this quarterly edition is the new focus on the evolution of cross-border gas transport tariffs, which have been rising in recent years. While transport costs currently have a relatively small impact on price formation, their influence is expected to grow, affecting how the EU gas market operates in the future.

 Access the report

Additional information

  • Access the underlying datasets.
  • Explore the previous publications on the topic, covering insights from Q1 & Q2.
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No need for more Power Purchase Agreement templates

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PPAs
Intro News
ACER was tasked by the electricity Market Design Regulation with assessing whether additional voluntary Power Purchase Agreement contract templates are needed to foster the transparency, efficiency and integration of the European internal energy market.

No need for more Power Purchase Agreement templates

What is it about?

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) concludes that there is no need for developing new voluntary Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) templates in the EU energy market.

What are the PPAs?

PPAs are contractual arrangements between electricity producers (often renewable energy generators) and buyers. By providing renewable electricity at mutually agreed rates, these contracts foster stability for both parties and promote renewable energy sources (RES).

What is the ACER assessment about?

The (2024) Electricity Market Design (EMD) Regulation promotes PPAs as long-term instruments for ensuring price stability. As part of the EMD reforms, ACER was tasked with assessing whether additional voluntary PPA contract templates are needed to foster the transparency, efficiency and integration of the European internal energy market.

In conducting its assessment, ACER engaged with more than a 100 diverse stakeholders including through an expert group and a public consultation over summer 2024.

What are ACER’s conclusions?

ACER’s engagement with stakeholders showed that:

  • Existing templates, developed by industry associations and national bodies, are largely sufficient for current market needs.

  • These templates help market participants (especially newer or smaller players) reduce legal costs and streamline the initial phases of the contracting process.

  • Addressing critical market barriers, such as project development bottlenecks, would have a more meaningful impact on fostering the PPA market.

ACER concludes that there is no need to introduce new voluntary PPA contract templates. Instead, ACER will provide recommendations on how to improve existing ones and advise on how to remove barriers to market integration.

What are the next steps?

ACER will continue to monitor the PPA market as part of its reporting obligations and to support market participants by addressing structural barriers in its recommendations.

Updates will be regularly shared with stakeholders on the ACER’s website and via the newsletter.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

What is it about?

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PPAs

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are contractual arrangements between electricity producers (frequently renewable energy generators) and buyers. By providing renewable electricity at mutually agreed rates, these contracts foster stability for both parties and promote the adoption of renewable energy sources (RES).

The Electricity Market Design (EMD) Regulation introduces measures to promote PPAs as long-term instruments for ensuring price stability and promote the deployment of renewable energy sources.

ACER has been tasked to assess whether the introduction of additional voluntary PPA contract templates is needed to foster the transparency, efficiency and integration of the European internal energy market.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

What is the role of ACER?

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Fostering renewable energy

The EMD Regulation mandated ACER to:

  • assess the need to develop new voluntary PPAs contract templates;
  • monitor the PPA market through annual assessments;
  • address any remaining barriers to market integration.

Assessment on the need for additional PPA contract templates

To inform its assessment, ACER engaged with a broad range of stakeholders through an expert group and a public consultation over summer 2024. More than 100 European and international stakeholders, including market players, sector associations, legal professionals, and academics, participated in the consultation process.

Following this comprehensive consultation process, ACER concluded that introducing new voluntary PPA contract templates is not necessary:

  • Existing templates, developed by industry associations and national bodies, are largely sufficient for current market needs.
  • These templates already provide sufficient guidance for market participants, help them reduce legal costs and simplify the contracting process.
  • Addressing critical market barriers, such as project development bottlenecks, would have a more meaningful impact on fostering the PPA market.

ACER will continue to monitor the PPA market as part of its reporting obligations and to support market participants by addressing structural barriers in its recommendations.

Read more on the assessment.

Annual assessment on the PPA market

As part of its annual monitoring report, ACER will publish an assessment of the PPA market both at European and Member State level.

The assessment is expected to be published in Q4 2025 and will evaluate how PPAs impact barriers to market integration.

PPA templates

To support market participants and facilitate PPA contracting, ACER has committed to gathering a list of publicly available templates suitable for European energy markets.

Share yours! ACER invites stakeholders to submit their templates to PPA.assessment@acer.europa.eu by 11 April 2025.

REMIT breach: Spanish energy regulator fines Neuro Energía y Gestión €1+ million for electricity market manipulation

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Electricity market
Intro News
CNMC has imposed a €1 million fine on Neuro Energía y Gestión for manipulating the Spanish electricity market between August 2022 and March 2023.

REMIT breach: Spanish energy regulator fines Neuro Energía y Gestión €1+ million for electricity market manipulation

What is it about?

The Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) has imposed a €1,081,502 fine on Neuro Energía y Gestión for manipulating the Spanish electricity market between 23 August 2022 and 15 March 2023.

This penalty comes under the REMIT Regulation (EU) No 1227/2011, which prohibits market manipulation and seeks to protect the integrity and transparency of the EU’s wholesale energy markets.

In its decision, CNMC found that Neuro Energía y Gestión had breached Article 5 of REMIT, specifically Article 2.2.a.i by:

  • Issuing and withdrawing non-genuine orders to be in an advantageous position to execute cross-border sales with France.
  • Manipulating the market by providing false or misleading signals as to the supply, demand, and price of wholesale energy products.

The investigation revealed that Neuro Energía y Gestión, in 125 trading sessions, issued and withdrew non-genuine orders using the digital certificates of 34 other market agents. The goal was to control the offer processing queue on the continuous intraday electricity cross-border sales contracts with France.

ACER welcomes this decision by CNMC, which seeks to promote the transparency and integrity of the Spanish electricity market.

Access the Decision and CNMC’s press release (both in Spanish).

See the latest table of REMIT breach sanction decisions adopted by national regulatory authorities.

Check the ACER REMIT Guidance (6th edition) for more information on the types of trading practices which could constitute market manipulation under REMIT.

Interested in further information on enforcement decisions under REMIT? Check out ACER’s REMIT Quarterly reports.

ACER calls for improvements in ENTSOs’ 2024 draft TYNDP scenarios to comply with its Framework Guidelines

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Pylon and pipelines
Intro News
ACER publishes its Opinion on the compliance of the draft joint Scenarios Report for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2024 with ACER’s Framework Guidelines.

ACER calls for improvements in ENTSOs’ 2024 draft TYNDP scenarios to comply with its Framework Guidelines

What is it about?

ACER publishes today its Opinion on the compliance of the draft joint Scenarios Report for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2024 with ACER’s Framework Guidelines.

The draft joint Scenarios Report for the TYNDP is issued by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and electricity (ENTSO-E) every two years. ACER reviews the draft Scenarios Report to ensure compliance with its Framework Guidelines, as this contributes to build a solid foundation to the European energy network development.

What are the network development scenarios?

Network development scenarios are key for planning future energy infrastructure. They project the evolution of the European energy system over the coming decade and guide the development of infrastructure needed to achieve Europe’s decarbonisation goals.

​​​​​Under the TEN-E Regulation, ACER is responsible for creating Framework Guidelines for Scenario Development, while ENTSOG and ENTSO-E (the ‘ENTSOs’) are tasked with developing network scenarios based on these guidelines. In January 2023, ACER published its Framework Guidelines, aiming to establish a transparent, inclusive, and robust process.

What are ACER’s key findings?

While welcoming some improvements in the scenarios’ development process, ACER’s assessment identifies several areas of non-compliance with its Framework Guidelines:

  • Diverging scenarios: rather than developing different scenario variants based on economic factors, the ENTSOs created diverging scenarios, leading to less reliable results.
  • Delayed process: scenarios’ development was delayed, negatively impacting other processes, such as the infrastructure gaps assessment or the project-specific cost-benefit analysis.
  • Slower stakeholder group formation: the process of establishing the Stakeholder Reference Group took longer than expected, which impacted the stakeholder engagement’s overall effectiveness.
  • Transparency: despite enhanced transparency and stakeholder consultations, the draft 2024 Scenarios Report still did not fully meet the transparency standards set by the Framework Guidelines. For instance, a detailed reasoning on how the stakeholders’ observations were addressed or considered has not been provided.

What are the next steps?

ACER expects some of these issues to be addressed in the final 2024 Scenarios Report for the TYNDP and anticipates that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will further tackle the remaining shortcomings in the 2026 scenarios.

In line with the TEN-E Regulation, the European Commission will review the draft joint Scenarios Report for TYNDP and, taking into account ACER’s Opinion, it will either approve it or ask the ENTSOs for amendments.

ACER updates its REMIT guidance to improve transaction reporting for intraday auctions

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Document management
Intro News
Following the introduction of intraday auctions within the single intraday coupling earlier this year, ACER publishes the updated Transaction Reporting User Manual (TRUM) and its Annexes, as well as the updated FAQs on REMIT transaction reporting.

ACER updates its REMIT guidance to improve transaction reporting for intraday auctions

What is it about?

Following the introduction of Intraday Auctions (IDAs) within the Single Intraday Coupling (SIDC) earlier this year, together with the latest update of the electronic formats for data reporting, ACER publishes today the updated:

What are Intraday Auctions?

Intraday Auctions (IDAs) were introduced within the SIDC framework in June 2024 to facilitate intraday electricity trading across Europe. IDAs are implicit auctions held three times a day that price and allocate intraday transmission capacity simultaneously across different bidding zones. This mechanism improves market efficiency by providing clear price signals and balancing electricity trading positions.

What’s new in ACER guidance documents?

  • TRUM and its Annexes: the amendments mainly focus on providing guidance on reporting the delivery point for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supply contracts that specify delivery within the EU without identifying a specific LNG terminal. This update was needed to align ACER transaction reporting guidance documents with the List of Accepted Energy Identification Codes (EICs).
  • FAQs on REMIT transaction reporting: the 17th edition of the FAQs was developed in consultation with the relevant Nominated Electricity Market Operators (NEMOs) to provide guidance on the reporting of transactions related to the recently introduced SIDC IDAs.

What are the next steps?

Reporting parties are expected to comply with the updated transaction reporting guidance on SIDC IDAs within 3 months of its publication on the ACER website (i.e., by the end of December 2024).

Both updated documents are available in the REMIT Knowledge Base.

Active consumer participation is key to driving the energy transition – how can it happen?

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Light switch off
Intro News
The ACER-CEER 2024 MMR on energy retail and consumer protection emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

Active consumer participation is key to driving the energy transition – how can it happen?

What is it about?

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Retail infographic

The EU’s drive towards carbon neutrality by 2050 requires swift changes. Today’s ACER-CEER 2024 Market Monitoring Report on energy retail and consumer protection emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

Which key challenges did the report identify?

  • Slow smart meter adoption
  • Increased price volatility
  • Fixed contracts dominate
  • Member States price interventions hinder flexibility

What are the key recommendations of the energy regulators’ report?

Retail markets can play a pivotal role as providers of flexibility. Unlocking more flexible retail consumption is crucial for the energy transition's success. It also creates opportunities for consumers to benefit from lower energy prices.

The report calls on regulatory authorities and Member States to prioritise demand-side response frameworks, incentivise efficient grid use, and accelerate the rollout of smart meters. Dynamic pricing and flexible contracts are key to empowering consumers.

To unlock greater flexibility in retail energy markets, the report calls for:

ACER's monitoring shows a gradual decrease in EU household energy prices

Average EU energy prices stabilised in 2024 after a major decrease the previous year, although they remain higher than pre-crisis levels. Retail price variations depend on contract types. Member States with more fixed-rate contracts saw slower reductions, leading to higher consumer costs compared to those with dynamic contracts.

To help track these trends, ACER has released a dashboard that shows the monthly changes in electricity and gas prices, including components like energy, network charges, and taxes across Member States from January 2019 to August 2024.

Get involved!

ACER and CEER will hold a webinar to present the report’s main findings and recommendations (Monday, 7 October 2024 at 14:00 CET). Register (for free) here.

Read more.

Explore the infographic.

Active consumer participation is key to driving the energy transition – how can it happen?

  • Retail
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Light switch

2024 Market Monitoring Report

The EU’s drive towards carbon neutrality by 2050 requires swift changes. The ACER-CEER 2024 Market Monitoring Report on energy retail and consumer protection emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

What are the key recommendations of the energy regulators’ report?

  • Retail markets can play a pivotal role as providers of flexibility. Unlocking more flexible retail consumption is crucial for the energy transition's success. It also creates opportunities for consumers to benefit from lower energy prices.
  • The report calls on regulatory authorities and Member States to prioritise demand-side response frameworks, incentivise efficient grid use, and accelerate the rollout of smart meters. Dynamic pricing and flexible contracts are key to empowering consumers.

What key challenges did the report identify?

The report highlights key trends in the retail electricity and gas markets in 2023:

  • Smart meter rollout remains slow: Smart meters are critical for giving consumers real-time control over their energy use and savings. However, in 10 Member States fewer than 30% of households have access to them, with 6 of those having a rollout below 10%.
  • Increased price volatility: The frequency of low and negative wholesale electricity prices surged 12-fold in 2023 compared to 2022. This volatility shows the growing need for system flexibility. Daily flexibility needs will more than double by 2030.
  • Fixed contracts dominate: 73% of EU households are on regulated fixed or market-based fixed electricity contracts. To empower consumers, more flexible, market-based contract options need to be offered.
  • Price interventions hinder flexibility: In 8 Member States, untargeted price interventions have slowed the adoption of flexible pricing contracts and consumption practices, which are crucial to meeting both consumers and grid needs.

How to unlock retail flexibility?

Barriers to demand response must be dismantled and supportive investment frameworks created to enable small, climate-compatible flexibility resources to participate in all electricity markets on an equal footing with traditional centralised sources of flexibility.   

Unlocking flexibility in the retail energy markets will require efforts across several fronts:

  • Update the regulatory framework: Promote demand-side response, while balancing household consumer protection in the lead-up to 2030.
  • Incentivise efficient grid use: Regulators should incentivise Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to optimise grid efficiency, ensuring that infrastructure investment supports future energy needs.
  • Accelerate smart meter rollout: The slow rollout of smart meters remains a barrier. Member States, regulators, and DSOs need to speed up the rollout of smart meters. Regulators and suppliers must ensure consumers are offered a wider range of flexible contracts, including dynamic price contracts.
  • Empower and inform consumers: Member States, regulators and suppliers must raise consumer awareness of the benefits of flexible energy use (such as potential cost savings and reduced carbon footprints) and provide incentives that reflect these benefits.

Highlights

  • 73%

    of household electricity consumers
    are on fixed and inflexible contracts

  • 8

    Member States continuing with untargeted price interventions impeding flexibility

  • 12-fold

    increase in low and negative wholesale electricity prices signalling the need for more flexibility

Report

The EU’s drive towards carbon neutrality by 2050 requires swift changes. This report emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

  Access the report

Country Sheets

For the first time, ACER publishes its Country Sheets to present key metrics on retail electricity markets across EU Member States and Norway. These short 1-pagers provide insights into:

  • key market facts;

  • consumer trends, including contract uptake and bill breakdown;

  • national progress towards 2030’s decarbonisation targets, showing status of electric vehicles’ uptake (EVs), EV’s charging stations, the installation of heat pumps and the share of final renewable energy consumption;

  • a high-level SWOT analysis to show strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of each market.  

  Access the Country Sheets

Infographic

Interested in the main highlights of the report?

  Dive into our infographic to explore the key figures

Dashboard

ACER's monitoring shows a gradual decrease in EU household energy prices

This ACER data dashboard tracks the monthly changes in electricity and gas prices, including components like energy, network charges, and taxes across Member States and EEA (Norway) from January 2019 to August 2024.

ACER monitoring shows:

  • Average EU energy prices stabilised in 2024 after a major decrease the previous year, although they are still higher than pre-crisis.
  • Retail price variations depend on contract types. Member States with more fixed-rate contracts saw slower reductions, leading to higher consumer costs compared to those with dynamic contracts.

The assessment relies on data collected by Vassa ETT consultancy and covers data from January 2019 to August 2024.

  Access the dashboard

Webinar

ACER and CEER will hold a webinar to present the main findings and recommendations of this report.

When?

Monday, 7 October 2024 at 14:00 CEST

  Register for free here

Additional information

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National Resource Adequacy Assessments

National Resource Adequacy Assessments

What is it?

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Worker electricity pylon

The European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) identifies potential concerns about electricity resource adequacy across the EU and provides an objective framework for assessing the need for additional national measures to ensure security of electricity supply. ERAA is carried out on an annual basis by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and reviewed by ACER. In May 2024, ACER approved ERAA for the first time.

Member States may choose to complement this European analysis by carrying out their own National Resource Adequacy Assessment (NRAA). While national assessments follow the ERAA methodology, they may capture new developments or national specificities that may have not been sufficiently reflected in the latest ERAA.

National Resource Adequacy Assessments

What is the role of ACER?

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Capacity Mechanisms Explained

When a national assessment identifies adequacy concerns that are not identified in ERAA and the Member State informs ACER, ACER must issue an opinion on the differences between the NRAA and ERAA.

In some cases, ACER’s Opinion can play a role in assessing the need for introducing a capacity mechanism – which offers remuneration to capacity resources to close the forecasted adequacy gap. The assessment is done by the European Commission, following State Aid rules. The process includes:

  • identifying the necessity for the State aid measure;

  • drafting a market reform plan;

  • designing the eventual State aid measure.

National Resource Adequacy Assessments

What does ACER expect in an NRAA?

National assessments must follow the ERAA methodology. At the same time, they may introduce changes in terms of, for example:

  • new information as it becomes available since the latest ERAA;

  • national specificities that are not reflected in ERAA.

These updates must be applied consistently throughout the modelling process to ensure an accurate evaluation of investment decisions and adequacy outcomes, as outlined in ACER’s previous decisions on ERAA

National Resource Adequacy Assessments

ACER Latest Opinions

When submitting a NRAA to ACER, Member States must explain any differences from the ERAA. This explanation can be submitted as a separate document. To facilitate this, ACER has published a set of best practices on how to clearly outline these differences.

NATIONAL ASSESSMENTACER OPINION
PolandACER Opinion 01/2025
EstoniaACER Opinion 04/2024
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ACER's first Opinion on a National Resource Adequacy Assessment highlights the need to evaluate how new investments can reduce electricity supply security risks

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Worker electricity pylon
Intro News
ACER approved Nominated Electricity Market Operators’ (NEMOs’) proposal to amend the single day-ahead coupling (SDAC) products methodology.

ACER's first Opinion on a National Resource Adequacy Assessment highlights the need to evaluate how new investments can reduce electricity supply security risks

What is it about?

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Capacity Mechanisms Explained

Today, ACER releases its Opinion on the National Resource Adequacy Assessment of Estonia. This is the first ACER Opinion on a National Resource Adequacy Assessment (NRAA).

What is a resource adequacy assessment?

The European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) identifies potential concerns about electricity resource adequacy across the EU and provides an objective framework for assessing the need for additional national measures to ensure security of electricity supply. ERAA is carried out on an annual basis by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and reviewed by ACER. In May 2024, ACER approved ERAA for the first time.

Member States can complement the European analysis with their own national assessment (NRAA). While national assessments follow the ERAA methodology, they may introduce changes in terms of, for example:

  • new information as it becomes available since the latest ERAA;
  • national specificities that are not reflected in ERAA.

Why an ACER Opinion?

When a national assessment identifies new adequacy concerns, and the Member State informs ACER, ACER must issue an Opinion on the differences between the national and European assessments.

In some cases, ACER’s opinion can play a role in the capacity mechanism application process. This process includes:

  • identifying the necessity for the State aid measure;
  • drafting the market reform plan;
  • designing the eventual State aid measure.

Once all steps are finalised, the Member State may offer additional remuneration to resources through the capacity mechanism to close the forecasted adequacy gap.

What are ACER findings?

  • The Estonian NRAA includes elements that represent a positive benchmark for future national assessments by:
    • Modelling the relevant neighbouring countries (and ensuring the interconnected market is taken into account).
    • Using ERAA 2023 as a starting point to ensure consistency and comparability between the two assessments.
  • The differences with some of the ERAA 2023 assumptions are justified, as the Estonian NRAA:
    • Incorporates new information about interconnector commissioning and renewable energy development.
    • Better reflects regional specificities concerning balancing reserves.
    • Includes a sensitivity analysis to illustrate the role of oil shale-based generation at national level.
  • However, the application of the updated assumptions is inconsistent throughout the assessment. While they have been used to recalculate the resource adequacy risk, their impact on the market (e.g. whether investments in new resources can mitigate the adequacy risk) has not been evaluated.

What are the next steps?

Considering these findings, ACER recommends the Estonian Transmission System Operator to assess how the new assumptions may impact the market and, if necessary, to amend the NRAA. This will improve the consistency of the Estonian adequacy assessment and the robustness of its results.