The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) publishes today its Opinion on the key elements of the draft Ten Year Network Development Plans (TYNDP) Scenario Report (2022), drafted by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and for Gas (ENTSOG).

What are ENTSO’s network development scenarios?

ENTSOs’ network development scenarios represent visions of potential future developments of energy system’s key aspects (e.g. demand, energy prices, technologies, etc.).

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG published their joint draft TYNDP 2022 Scenario Report on 11 April 2022.

ENTSOs’ network development scenarios play an important role in the definition of the pan-European network development plans for gas and electricity. They are also instrumental for selecting the Projects of Common Interest (PCIs). As such, it is essential to define trustworthy, transparent, realistic scenarios that are aligned with the European energy and climate objectives.

In particular, the scenarios described within the draft TYNDP Scenario Report will set the basis for the 2022 TYNDP for gas and electricity transmission networks, expected to be published later this year.

What are the Opinion’s main conclusions?

ACER publishes its Opinion on ENTSOs’ draft network development scenarios on a biennial basis.

In this year’s draft Report, ACER identified some key issues, namely:

• the absence of long term effects on the European energy markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (e.g. effects on the gas prices, the location of gas sources, the speed-up of renewable energy sources (RES) intake, etc.),

• the (recurrent) lack of a common “slow economic development” scenario (describing how the energy system is to develop under less favourable economic conditions),

• the need to further clarify the connection between various scenarios (to enable a better understanding of diverse scenarios’ results).

ACER suggests that the diversity of scenarios should be better addressed in the new Scenario Guidelines.

However, ACER further notes the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be included in the analysis of ENTSOs’ final report for 2022, as it could have a significant effect on the 2022 TYNDPs and subsequent PCIs selection.

While recognising the tight timeline, ENTSOs are strongly encouraged to update at least one scenario:

• ENTSO-E should update at least the gas prices and RES integration levels considered into the analysis,

• ENTSOG should also consider the existing changes of gas sources and flows.

An amended set of scenarios should be made available for the 2022 TYNDPs as soon as possible. ACER is ready to engage and provide support to ensure these amendments can be applied in a timely manner.

Read more on ACER's Opinion.

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) publishes today its Opinion on the Summer Supply Outlook for 2022 of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

What are the supply outlooks about?

The short-term supply outlooks issued by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and Electricity (ENTSO-E) are becoming increasingly important as they provide relevant information to EU decision-makers in the current times of unusual developments in the energy sector. ACER is mandated to monitor and assess ENTSOs’ summer and winter supply outlooks, and issues recommendations to further improve their methodologies.

ENTSOG’s Summer Supply Outlook 2022: what are the main findings?

ENTSOG’s Summer Outlook simulations consider potential disruption scenarios from 1 April. ACER highlights the following findings and possible scenarios:

• Under a baseline scenario (where there is no supply disruption), the European gas infrastructure provides sufficient flexibility to market participants to reach at least a 90% storage filling level in all underground gas storages by the end of the summer, ensuring planned maintenance and exports to Ukraine.
• The EU is dependent on Russian gas for a minimum of 20% of its supply. In order to minimise this dependency, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports should increase up to 80 bcm over the summer season. However, there are  limitations in global LNG liquefaction capacities and some limitations in the cross-border transmission capacities within Europe, which may prevent some European countries from receiving all the additional LNG imports needed.
• In case the pipeline supply routes through Belarus and Ukraine are disrupted for the entire summer season, Europe can reach (on average) 84% filling level of its total storage capacity, with significant differences across Member States.
• In case of a full pipeline supply disruption from Russia, storages can only reach a 45% filling level of their total capacity. Most European countries would not reach the 80% filling target (with significant difference between Western and Eastern European countries).
• Most European countries do not rely on Russian gas during summer to satisfy their demand – not considering the refilling of storages - except Latvia, Estonia and Finland.

What is ACER’s assessment?

ACER welcomes ENTSOG’s timely publication and acknowledges the Outlook’s main findings. In particular, ACER appreciates that the scope and methodology used have been revised in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the possible repercussions on risk preparedness in the European Union.

However, ACER finds that the Outlook’s assumptions and methodology could be further improved and therefore issues specific recommendations for future Outlooks.

• Potential impact of supply pipeline routes disruptions: ACER recommends considering the outlook findings dynamically in view of the most recent developments affecting the gas supply situation.
• Demand estimates: It is not clear whether ENTSOG’ gas demand projections have considered that sustained high level wholesale gas prices are likely to erode gas demand, particularly for industries. ACER advises ENTSOG to incorporate gas demand reduction measures in its gas demand projections.
• EU dependence on Russian gas: ACER notes the EU’s dependency on Russian gas is at least 20% to meet the 80% storage level by next winter. Therefore, selected reinforcements of the gas network may be needed to provide sufficient infrastructure capacities to reduce the dependence on Russian gas imports.
• Vigilance over fillings of storage during summer: The current situation calls for continued vigilance of all actors responsible for security of gas supply, and regular monitoring of storage filling trajectories. ACER praises ENTSOG for developing tools and initiatives beyond its legal tasks, which provide real value for monitoring close to real time the gas security of supply situation.
• Infrastructure to reduce dependence on Russian gas: ACER suggests ENTSOG to carry out additional studies to identify concrete investments and costs associated. These assessments should start from the possibilities to re-allocate existing capacities in view of expected changed of gas flow patterns from West to East.
• Treatment of odourised gas: ACER calls on ENTSOG and Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to prioritise, in coordination with national authorities and end-users, a detailed analysis on the feasibility of implementing reverse flows.
• Cooperation between ENTSOG and ENTSO-E: ACER highlights the importance of a close cooperation between the ENTSOs to ensure consistent assumptions and results in their respective gas and electricity seasonal outlooks.

Read more about the ACER’s Opinion.

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) and the Council of European Energy Regulators (CEER) publish today the Gas Wholesale Volume of the Market Monitoring Report (Gas MMR 2021).

The MMR offers an overview of EU gas markets in 2021 and in the first half of 2022. This edition focuses on analysing the various drivers causing unprecedented price escalation, includes recommendations for further market development and contains proposals to secure supplies and to hedge price exposure.

What is the Gas Wholesale Volume of the MMR about?

It looks at:

• gas market developments and the drivers of the unprecedented gas price rise,

• the level of competition and gas market functioning using mainly the metrics in the ACER Gas Target Model,

• the positive effects on markets of the implementation of the gas Network Codes.

It has a set of recommendations:

• to speed up a single Internal Gas Market in Europe,

• to secure gas supplies for Winter 2022 and hedge price exposure amid the challenging market circumstances.

The main findings of the 2021 Gas MMR are:

1. Record high EU LNG imports (mostly from the US) and falling gas demand are (so far) offsetting the lower Russian pipeline flows in 2022.

2. Markets expect gas prices to remain high in the coming months driven by concerns regarding supply.

3. The EU gas market delivers benefits in terms of trade, innovation signals and security of supply. The focus is on finding policy responses to secure supply (e.g. filling storage, diversification of supply etc.).

Explore the rest of the MMR publications and energy market data in our interactive dashboard.

This year for the first time, there will be a new Decarbonised Gases volume, due out in November 2022.

View presentation and recording of Gas MMR 2021 webinar.

Download the 2021 Gas Wholesale Market Volume.

Today, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has submitted to the European Commission its revision of the Network Code for cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows. This cybersecurity network code aims to further contribute to maintaining the security and resilience of the electricity system across Europe.

The Agency, with the support of an expert group and extensive consultation, revised the proposal for a network code submitted by ENTSO-E and the EU DSO Entity in January 2022. The network operators’ proposal was based on the ACER Framework Guideline on sector-specific rules for cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, which provided high-level principles for the development of an EU-wide binding network code.

The network code includes rules on various electricity cybersecurity-related aspects, such as:

• A common electricity cybersecurity framework aimed to standardise the measures in place to protect the EU electricity cyber perimeter;
• Governance of cybersecurity for the electricity sector;
• A comprehensive cross-border risk management process;
• Cybersecurity information sharing flows to ensure timely information and foster quick and coordinated reaction of relevant stakeholders;
• Rules on incident handling and crisis management;
• A cybersecurity exercise framework to enhance preparedness of all operators;
• Rules for the protection of information exchange;
• A framework for monitoring, benchmarking and reporting.

The main changes introduced by ACER’s review to the network operators’ proposal include:

• specifying the elements and principles to be included in terms, conditions and methodologies;
• elaborating on governance-related issues;
• introducing the legal basis to develop guidelines for the exchange of information;
• introducing the possibility for Member States to be exempted from provisions for national security reasons.

Additionally, ACER performed a thorough check of the provisions of the proposed Network Code to ensure its compatibility with the NIS Directive and the Risk Preparedness Regulation.

What are the next steps?

ACER has submitted the revised Network Code to the European Commission within the allowed time limit of six months. Next, the Commission will review the submitted Network Code and initiate its procedure for the adoption of delegated acts. When adopted by Member States, it becomes legally binding across the EU.

Access the Network Code on sector-specific rules for cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows (NCCS).

Find out more about ACER and Cybersecurity