Since 13th January, as required by Council Regulation (EU) 2022/2576, ACER publishes a daily Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) price assessment. On 8 March, ACER will start applying an updated version (Beta 2.0) of the methodology for its LNG price assessments.

Why update the methodology and why now?

• The aim (as per the Regulation) is for ACER to produce an objective price assessment that reflects the price of LNG spot transactions.
• On some days, there were insufficient eligible LNG spot transactions to calculate the price assessment as per the established methodology (which required a minimum of 5 transactions over 5 rolling days).
• After observing the initial methodology (Beta 1.0) for a few weeks, ACER has decided to update it.
• The Regulation also requires ACER to publish a LNG benchmark by 31 March 2023. ACER intends to start applying the new LNG price methodology as of 8 March in order to verify it until the benchmark’s go-live on 31 March 2023.

What are the main changes to the LNG price assessment methodology and why is it relevant?

• A single EU LNG price will be calculated on top of the current practice of prices for 2 zones (North-West Europe and South Europe).
• ACER’s Beta 1.0 methodology used a 5-day rolling window to aggregate transactions and thus build a price that is representative of the market conditions. Beta 2.0 further shifts the weight of the calculation to the most recent transactions and is at the same time extending the calculation window to 10 days.

This will increase the robustness of the LNG price calculation.

Has ACER consulted stakeholders on its work?

ACER works closely with stakeholders to have a meaningful LNG price assessment that is genuinely representative and not arbitrary. ACER developed and now subsequently refined, with the help of an LNG Expert Group and in consultation with the European Commission, a robust beta methodology underpinning the ACER LNG price assessment.

In addition, ACER intends to further update the Guidance on reporting LNG market data, and improve its TERMINAL platform to improve the user experience. The updated reporting Guidance will mainly clarify important details to assure better data quality. 

Both updated documents will benefit from the advice of its LNG Expert Group, close engagement with market participants (e.g. via roundtables, webinars), input from other stakeholders and ACER price assessors’ experience so far.

Access the updated LNG price assessment methodology (Beta 2.0).

Learn more about the LNG price assessment.

ACER and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and have signed an updated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which strengthens collaboration between the two institutions. The MoU notably incorporates new cooperation areas under the Market Correction Mechanism (MCM) Regulation and benchmarks related to the energy sector. It also details the role of the recently established ACER–ESMA Task Force.

ACER and ESMA will continue to cooperate in relation to Regulation of wholesale energy markets, which encompass both energy derivatives and spot markets. The cooperation will primarily be achieved through on-going consultations, exchange of information and cross-participation in joint meetings of working groups and task forces.

Main areas covered by the MoU

• Coordinated and consistent approach to market abuse framework under the Regulation on wholesale energy market integrity and transparency and the Market Abuse Regulation to further enhance market integrity in energy and energy derivative markets;
• Technical cooperation on data and knowledge with respect to the functioning of energy and energy derivative markets; and
• LNG price assessments and benchmarks administered by ACER and other energy-related benchmarks relevant for ACER's or ESMA's mandates.

Background

ACER and ESMA have a long-established cooperative relationship. The first MoU was signed in July 2013.

In October 2022, in the context of the energy crisis, ACER and ESMA enhanced their efforts to strengthen oversight of energy and energy derivative markets. They launched the idea of a joint ACER–ESMA Task Force and highlighted possible areas of cooperation. More here.

ACER and ESMA published preliminary data reports concerning the adoption of the EU Regulation establishing an MCM to protect Union citizens and the economy against excessively high prices in January 2023. See ACER report here and ESMA report here. The provisions governing the MCM started applying on 15 February 2023.

Both agencies released on 1 March their respective Effects Assessments. See ACER report here and ESMA report here.

On 25 January 2023, the national regulatory authorities (NRAs) of all EU Member States, referred to ACER a joint proposal of all Transmission System Operators (TSOs). The proposal contains amendments to the methodology for calculating scheduled exchanges resulting from single day-ahead market coupling pursuant to Article 43 of Commission Regulation (EU) 2015/1222. ACER initiates the procedure and opens a public consultation.

The main amendments that TSOs propose are on how scheduled exchanges between the Nominated Electricity Market Operators (NEMOs) trading hubs are calculated.

What are the next steps?

ACER has 6 months (until 25 July 2023) to assess the TSOs’ proposal.

To collect the views of the stakeholders, a public consultation on the TSOs’ proposal runs from 1 to 29 March 2023. In particular, ACER is interested in:

• The calculation of the scheduled exchanges between NEMO trading hubs; and
• Any other necessary amendments.

Access the public consultation and read more. 

Today, ACER publishes its assessment report on the effects of the Market Correction Mechanism (MCM) on energy markets and security of supply.

Background to the MCM

The MCM Regulation (December 2022) establishes a Market Correction Mechanism to protect citizens and the economy against excessively high gas prices. The MCM sets a bidding limit on certain financial derivatives traded at EU exchanges with the aim of limiting EU gas prices. This bidding limit is activated when specific conditions are met.

The Regulation tasks ACER and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) with assessing the market effects from the introduction of the Market Correction Mechanism (MCM) and submitting their MCM effect assessment reports to the European Commission by 1 March 2023. Both reports are intended to assist the Commission in its decision of extending the MCM to the derivatives traded at other Virtual Trading Points (‘VTPs’) in the EU and in assessing whether the key design elements of the MCM need to be reviewed.  ACER and ESMA already published preliminary reports on 23 January 2023. ESMA also published their final MCM effects assessment report today.

MCM seems not to have a discernible gas market impact to date

Neither ACER nor ESMA have identified significant impacts (positive or negative) that could be unequivocally and directly attributed to the adoption of the MCM.

However, one should not infer from this that the MCM might not have any impacts on financial and energy markets or on security of supply in the future. ACER and ESMA continue to emphasise the need to regularly monitor gas markets and gas trading activities to identify risks and to assist in detecting potential impacts of the MCM in the future.

Challenges of extending the MCM to derivatives linked to other EU Virtual Trading Points (VTPs)

• ACER finds valid arguments for extending the MCM only to VTPs where the liquidity of gas derivative trading is modest to high. ACER considers that the extension of the MCM to other VTPs would not likely lead to significant negative effects in gas markets.
• ACER finds valid arguments for using the same activation and de-activation conditions, making use exclusively of the Dutch TTF front-month price and the same dynamic price-bidding limit at the EU VTPs (where the MCM is extended to other VTPs).

No technical reasons to review the key design elements of the MCM

• ACER could not identify a need for revising the price references used for calculating the reference price.
• ACER could not identify technical reasons to change the current activation or de-activation conditions of the MCM or for changing the dynamic price-bidding limit.

ACER will continue monitoring the effects of the MCM in energy markets and on security of energy supply.

ACER Market Correction Mechanism Effects Assessment Report.

ESMA Effects Assessment of the impact of the Market Correction Mechanism on financial market.

Further information on the Market Correction Mechanism.

Mandated by law, the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) is ENTSO-E’s annual assessment of the risks to EU security of electricity supply for up to 10 years ahead. ENTSO-E is the European association of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity.

The ERAA should provide an objective basis for identifying electricity adequacy concerns and assess the need for any additional national measures ensuring security of electricity supply such as the introduction of temporary capacity remuneration mechanisms.

In the ACER Decision published today, ACER decided to neither approve nor amend ENTSO-E’s ERAA 2022.

ERAA 2022 was not approved by ACER

On ERAA 2022, ACER finds several positives:

• ACER acknowledges ENTSO-E’s substantial efforts to improve ERAA 2022 in the context of an unprecedented energy crisis.
• ACER points to improvements on some methodological aspects, such as the investment model and demand-side response, and input assumptions.
• ACER recognises ENTSO-E’s enhanced stakeholder engagement and transparency.

However, ACER also finds room for improvement:

• ERAA 2022 has certain simplifications or deviations from the methodological framework that compromise the robustness of the assessment.
• ERAA 2022 underestimates the revenues that capacity resources could make in the energy market, and the volume of cross-zonal capacities.
• ERAA 2022 should be aligned with the European Union’s Fit-for-55 policy objectives.

Hence, ACER considers that ERAA 2022 does not provide a fully objective basis for identifying the risks to European security of electricity supply. In particular, the underestimation of revenues in the energy market does not adequately capture the opportunities for existing power plants to continue running to meet system needs (instead of retiring) or the incentives to attract new resources in the power system. Similarly, the quantity of cross border electricity trade is underestimated in the ERAA 2022 report. For example, Member States are making electricity supply available to neighbours particularly for security of supply reasons (one example being France becoming a net importer in 2022 per French nuclear production being particularly low). Such underestimations may lead to incorrect policy decisions with possibly negative implications for the integration of the electricity market and/or result in higher costs to consumers.

All in all, against this background ACER has decided it is not in a position to approve ERAA 2022.

ERAA 2022 was not amended by ACER

ACER considered amending ERAA 2022 and concluded that it would not be feasible within the required 3-month decision-making timeframe. An amended ERAA 2022 would be of limited value given that ERAA 2022’s scenarios are becoming increasingly outdated in the current, fast-evolving context.

ACER guidance for ERAA 2023

ACER’s decision provides recommendations intended as guidance for ENTSO-E to ensure a successful implementation of the next edition of ERAA. These concern primarily the use of reliable and transparent input data (in particular scenario assumptions reflecting the EU’s Fit-for-55 objectives) and the effective implementation of the methodological framework (in particular the robust consideration of market revenues and cross-zonal capacities).

The ERAA assessment is the cornerstone of the EU`s long-term adequacy framework, foreseen in the (2019) Clean Energy Package of EU legislation to provide (from 2021) an objective basis to identify electricity adequacy concerns. A robust pan-European security of supply assessment is a much-needed input for Member States, and even more so in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. ACER and the NRAs are committed to continue working together with ENTSO-E and the TSO community to close the remaining implementation gaps for a robust ERAA 2023.

Access the ACER Decision and its Annex.

The annual ACER Market Monitoring Report (MMR) presents the main results of monitoring the European internal electricity markets and recommends further actions to foster their integration.

In 2023, ACER will publish a series of topical overviews of the energy market situation, covering the year 2022. The Wholesale Electricity Market Monitoring 2022 – Key Developments published today is the first of these publications.  

What were the main wholesale electricity trends in 2022?

• The energy crisis combined with a mild winter led to a decrease in electricity consumption, especially during the last quarter of 2022. Demand reduction resulted in lower power generation.
• Although electricity production from renewables remained almost constant, emissions increased due to the rise in coal and gas power generation, and low nuclear production.
• Installed capacity of renewables reached a new record in 2022, while coal-installed capacity decreased. However, the use of coal-fired power plants significantly increased since 2020. See the ACER’s interactive dashboard for the evolution of generation from renewable energy sources compared to fossil fuels (by selecting the years 2020 and 2022).
• A sharp increase in day-ahead prices. The post pandemic economic recovery and Russia's invasion of Ukraine dramatically affected gas prices, which led to an increase in electricity prices across the EU.
• Forward markets also reached high price levels in 2022, especially for products for delivery in autumn and winter months.
• Negative day-ahead electricity prices reached pre-2019 levels. This seems to be correlated with demand reduction, as 50% of the negative prices were observed during the last quarter of 2022 and 20% in December alone.